The Key Forces Driving Payments for 2026: From Agentic Commerce to Interoperable Payments

01/22/2026

Visa, a global leader in digital payments, unveils predictions for the key trends shaping the future of payments in 2026. Building on the transformative changes seen in 2025, driven by the convergence of technologies such as AI and Web3, Visa anticipates an even faster evolution of commerce, trade, and financial systems in 2026. Hong Kong will continue to be a hub of payment innovation, with real-time and mobile payments evolving to meet the needs of both businesses and consumers. 

As 2025 set the stage for rapid advancements, 2026 is expected to accelerate these changes at an unprecedented pace. Advancements in digital infrastructure, a rapidly maturing regulatory environment, and broader access to mobile and computing technologies will drive significant societal shifts, fundamentally altering how people and businesses engage with money.

Four Key Forces Shaping 2026 Payments

1. Agentic Commerce Moves Mainstream – Even for Businesses
 The convergence of AI and commerce is poised to redefine the way consumers and businesses engage in purchasing decisions. The next wave of eCommerce evolution is expected to AI-led or agentic commerce, where AI agents autonomously handle tasks such as searching, shopping, and paying for goods and services on behalf of consumers.

Generative AI platforms are already demonstrating their potential to drive retail traffic, with platforms in the United States seeing a staggering 4,700%¹ year-on-year surge in online retail traffic in July 2025. Asia Pacific, home to over 200 million companies and the world’s largest exporting region, with 70 of the top 80 trade corridors touching a market in the region, is poised to experience a similar seismic shift in AI-driven commerce, fuelled by its digital and mobile-first landscape. 

The growing demand for intelligent AI agents capable of interpreting business intent, orchestrating workflows, and reducing the time needed to complete payments is being driven not only by consumer-facing platforms but also by the “consumerisation” of B2B payments. A new generation of business leaders, seeking to replicate the easy, frictionless, and secure payment experiences typical of the consumer sector, is accelerating this demand for AI-driven solutions in B2B transactions.

In 2026, agentic commerce is expected to gain significant traction, with more AI-driven experiences emerging in the market. The expanded Visa Intelligent Commerce suite of integrated APIs and programs includes the new Trusted Agent Protocol, a new low-code solution to help merchants recognise trusted agents, scaling trust at both sides of the transaction. Several pilot projects for agentic commerce are planned by Visa in early 2026, which will help accelerate its integration into the payment ecosystem in Hong Kong and drive the next wave of innovation in digital commerce.

2. AI: The Ultimate Double-Edged Sword
AI is revolutionising commerce, but the same power fuelling innovation is arming cybercriminals with tools for deception—enabling increasingly sophisticated scams, including deepfakes, synthetic IDs, and agentic frauds.

In 2026, identity security is expected to emerge as the critical frontline in the fight against fraud, with its increasing sophistication demanding unprecedented collaboration across the industry. No single entity, be it a bank, merchant, fintech, or government, can address these threats alone. Cybercrime is projected to cost the global economy USD 15.6 trillion (HKD 121.7 trillion) by 2029², with bots accounting for 37% of all internet traffic. Asia faces some of the highest scam losses globally³, threatening economic growth.

Against this backdrop of escalating risks, Visa is leading the charge with intelligence at scale, real-time controls, and global governance. In 2024, more than 300 AI models and 90 tools successfully blocked over USD 40 billion (HKD 312 billion) in fraud⁴, and new frameworks such as Know Your Agent are being developed to support the rise of autonomous transactions. 

As secure and trusted authentication becomes a key strategic differentiator in 2026, Visa continues to lead with its comprehensive suite of layered security solutions, which include:

• Accelerating tokenisation: Protects payment credentials by replacing card details with specific cryptographic keys, enabling consumers to provision their cards securely to mobile wallets and even AI agents they trust. Compared to PAN-based transactions, fraud rates are 34% lower⁵.
• Harnessing biometrics: Enables more secure transactions when physical cards are absent by verifying consumers’ unique biological signatures such as fingerprints and faces – reducing fraud rates by as much as 50% compared to one-time passwords⁶.
• Securing the ecosystem: Visa has invested USD 12 billion (HKD 93.6 billion) in its technology and infrastructure over the past five years, creating new fraud prevention services such as the Visa Network Defense that protects all types of payments and commerce.

3. Goodbye Manual Guest Checkout
As eCommerce matures, the practice of manually entering card details and security codes is being phased out. Consumer expectations are shifting toward faster, more reliable, and secure checkout experiences. Visa’s research found that six in 10 respondents in Asia Pacific faced issues with paying with cards at least once in the past year, such as forgotten card details or missed One-Time Passwords (OTPs), leading to fractured consumer experiences and lost revenues for merchants.

Announced in 2025, Visa’s Click to Pay expansion is set to address these pain points by enabling faster, frictionless eCommerce checkouts. Click to Pay eliminates the need for manual input by leveraging tokenised credentials and biometric authentication. This solution will not only speed up the checkout process but also add an extra layer of security, ensuring that transactions are completed safely and efficiently. With major enablers and issuers already on board, Click to Pay is expected to lead the way toward a new era of seamless eCommerce.

4. A Renewed Focus on Interoperable Payments
Asia Pacific is often the epicentre of payment innovation, with digital wallets, QR payments, and real-time payment (RTP) networks becoming deeply embedded in the region’s socioeconomic fabric. As digital transactions become more prevalent, both consumers and businesses are increasingly engaging with money in diverse forms and across various contexts.

In 2026, the intersection of cash, cards, wallets, and digital currencies will define the region’s payment landscape. Central to this evolution will be interoperability—ensuring that end users can seamlessly use, spend, and move money across different platforms, currencies, and borders.

As 2026 unfolds, governments and businesses in Asia Pacific are expected to accelerate efforts to connect payment systems in a digital-first, mobile-centric, and AI-powered environment. Solutions like Visa’s Scan to Pay will enable consumers to pay with digital wallets at their favourite merchants, while issuers and platforms will continue modernising their infrastructure, with initiatives such as cloud-native and API-first migrations in collaboration with Visa and Pismo to deliver integrated, digital-first experiences.

The year 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era in payments, laying the foundation for a more connected, efficient, and interoperable global payment ecosystem.

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¹ Generative AI-Powered Shopping Rises with Traffic to U.S. Retail Sites
² Global cybercrime estimated cost 2025 | Statista
³ New GASA Report Estimates $688 Billion in Scam Losses Across Asia Amid Rising Cyberthreat Worldwide
⁴ Visa AP Risk Narrative Playbook (2025)
⁵ Visa Risk Datamart, Global, FY24 Q1–Q4 Token Fraud Rate vs PAN Fraud Rate by PV. Merchant’s individual rates may vary. Note: India domestic and all Russia transactions are excluded.
⁶ Analysis based VisaNet data globally, from July-December 2023, comparing biometric authentication to step-up through OTP sent over text message.

 

About Visa
Visa (NYSE: V) is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating transactions between consumers, sellers, financial institutions and government entities across more than 220 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. We believe that economies that include everyone everywhere, uplift everyone everywhere and see access as foundational to the future of money movement. Learn more at Visa.com.